Analysis · Causal Attribution
One cause, many symptoms
Symptoms appear in five modules; the causes are far fewer. Each chain below follows a single site's degradation from its first leading indicator through to margin, using lagged correlation to order the sequence. Fixing the head of a chain removes the exposure of everything below it.
Cause concentration
79%
of total 90-day exposure traces back to the top three causes
Distinct root causes
5
Across all detected slippages
Causal chains
3
2 span multiple modules
Chained exposure
$5.93M
90-day exposure inside identified chains
Repeat episodes
24
Slippages recurring within the window
Root cause ledger
Exposure attributed to each cause, with the modules it surfaces in
| Root cause | Slippages | 90-day exposure | Share | Surfaces in | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick Cycle Time | 5 | $13.78M | 45.4% | Warehouse & DistributionDock & Loading | |
| Order Backlog | 4 | $3.24M | 10.7% | Warehouse & DistributionDock & Loading | |
| Units / Labor Hour | 2 | $2.38M | 7.9% | Warehouse & Distribution | |
| Average Dock Dwell | 8 | $1.73M | 5.7% | Warehouse & DistributionDock & LoadingDelivery & Customer SLATrucking & Fleet | |
| Fleet Utilization | 2 | $658K | 2.2% | Trucking & Fleet |
Warehouse backlog to margin erosion
Inland Empire DC · correlation strength 95% · $4.39M combined 90-day exposure
- Warehouse & DistributionOrigin
Order Backlog
1123 vs 643+74.7% vs baseline$1.48M · 90d - Warehouse & Distribution
Pick Cycle Time
20.4 min vs 14.9 min+36.6% vs baseline$1.70M · 90d · r=1.00 - Dock & Loading
Load Ready on Arrival
76.7% vs 92.9%-17.4% vs baseline$75K · 90d · r=0.99 - Dock & Loading
Average Dock Dwell
160.3 min vs 94.7 min+69.3% vs baseline$451K · 90d · r=1.00 - Dock & Loading
Detention Minutes / Truck
49.8 min vs 0.0 min+1523323.0% vs baseline$537K · 90d · r=0.93 - Delivery & Customer SLA
OTIF
68.89% vs 93.35%-26.2% vs baseline$150K · 90d · r=0.81
Labor strain to service failure
Inland Empire DC · correlation strength 82% · $1.03M combined 90-day exposure
- Warehouse & DistributionOrigin
Warehouse Overtime Share
15.8% vs 7.0%+124.0% vs baseline$72K · 90d - Warehouse & Distribution
Units / Labor Hour
9.3 vs 11.2-17.1% vs baseline$294K · 90d · r=1.00 - Warehouse & Distribution
Pick Accuracy
98.76% vs 99.26%-0.5% vs baseline$0 · 90d · r=0.99 - Warehouse & Distribution
Damage Rate
0.83% vs 0.45%+86.2% vs baseline$658K · 90d · r=0.99 - Delivery & Customer SLA
Claims Value
$32 vs $8+277.3% vs baseline$10K · 90d · r=0.29
Maintenance compliance to customer margin
Memphis Terminal · correlation strength 33% · $503K combined 90-day exposure
- Trucking & FleetOrigin
PM Compliance
94.9% vs 93.3%+1.7% vs baseline$0 · 90d - Trucking & Fleet
Unplanned Downtime
0.1 hrs vs 0.0 hrs+110.5% vs baseline$3K · 90d · r=0.00 - Trucking & Fleet
Fleet Utilization
51.9% vs 58.3%-10.9% vs baseline$309K · 90d · r=0.26 - Trucking & Fleet
Empty Mile %
15.7% vs 11.3%+38.0% vs baseline$146K · 90d · r=0.22 - Trucking & Fleet
Lane Margin %
2.1% vs 23.3%-91.0% vs baseline$45K · 90d · r=0.85